Author Topic: The end of the automotive era  (Read 999 times)

Offline cadillac ken

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #20 on: November 24, 2017, 11:22:15 AM »
Points well made.  If I follow the money this is what I find:

As others have pointed out the old car business, aftermarket parts business (even for the pedestrian Fords and Chevys driven daily) SEMA, and all the other related automotive businesses make up $100's of billions of dollars of the economy world wide.  This autonomous car thing is not going to be something that happens on a large scale for many many years.  Plus I'm quite sure provisions will be in place for collector cars and specialty cars to remain on the road.

Legally it's a nightmare.  When the electronics fail, and they will, and the result is an accident, who is picking up the tab?  Can't be the driver.  He wasn't driving.  Manufactures liability is at maximum exposure.  The potential to hurt their profits is huge.

And then there's the billion dollar petrol industry.  enough said.

To add one security expert brought up the point of hacking.  With the recent personal information hack of Equifax (over 150 million citizens affected) and the now proven foreign county hacking regarding the last election, a sophisticated hack attempt could cause mass chaos on the roads of America when autonomous cars are the norm.

My concerns about the new automatic braking, lane correction, and other features designed to compensate for the distracted driver only foster a more irresponsible attitude by drivers behind the wheel.  All of these features sends the message that it's okay you as the driver is not really paying attention.  I think that's a very bad ideology and also a very slippery slope considering fully autonomous cars are still many years away (many, many yeras, away)

The future always brings changes.  But I'm not holding my breath on the flying cars and self driving ones. I have more concerns today, right now, with drivers that have little concern for the responsibility of piloting their vehicle and relying on technology to take over when they aren't paying attention--- When they should be. Responsibility behind the wheel is simply eroded with these "advancements"

Here's a good question:  How many of us here have had an accident recently in an "old fashion" car that requires our attention to drive it safely and responsibly.  For me it's been over 30 years.

Offline The Tassie Devil(le)

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #21 on: November 24, 2017, 05:35:43 PM »
The one feature I still don't rely on 100% is the back up camera.  I still find myself looking back over my shoulder most of the time.   But I suppose if you are a younger person whose cars have always had it they will become reliant on it. 
With the shape of the modern cars, Back-up Cameras are getting to be a must, simply because the backs are so high, and the seats have so many head restraints, that it is virtually impossible to see what is behind.

Last year I rented a Toyota Rav 4, and I found myself totally relying on the camera for reversing and parking.   Couldn't see a damned thing out the rear vision mirror of what I wanted to see, and no amount of twisting the neck did much better.

In my '60 CDV, and my Eldo, especially with the roof down, I could see everything, save for what was initially below the rear bumper bar.

Bruce. >:D

PS.   I was backing a trailer with my mates' Rav 4, and the reversing sensors were constantly going off, indicating I was too close to what I was reversing into.   Then DUH, It was the trailer that was setting it off.   These vehicles aren't smart enough to realise that when the trailer lights are connected, there is an obstacle in the way of the sensors, and need to be disabled.   The Camera was a great assist though.
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Offline savemy67

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #22 on: November 24, 2017, 07:11:04 PM »
Hello all,

Shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, political scientist Francis Fukuyama authored "The End of History".  Needless to say, history did not end, liberal democracy has not triumphed, and Russia is still a potential problem for the U.S. and the West.  While I have enjoyed reading some of Fukuyama's works, the point is that predictions don't always come true, and over-reaching predictions seldom so.

I recalled that Bob Lutz - a mere eight months ago - derided the electric car as economically futile (http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-lutz-qa-20170330-story.html).  I don't think economic conditions have changed so drastically in eight months as to portend the end of the automobile era.  I can imagine a future for electric cars, but one that includes a major problem for auto manufacturers.

I think it is possible, that in a generation or two, tens of millions of people will no longer want to own or lease a car when they can summon one on demand from a smart phone application.  So the number of newly manufactured cars needed to satisfy demand will decline steadily - not to the point of the end of the automotive era, but to the point of the end of the auto manufacturers as we know them.

Respectfully submitted,
Christopher Winter
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Offline 2manycars

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #23 on: November 24, 2017, 09:58:10 PM »
Coming into this thread was like deja vu. We're discussing this very topic on Corvetteforum as well, and it's going just about the same there as here.

As for me, I don't think the autonomous vehicles are taking over any time soon, but electric is definitely here to stay. They just put in a sizable Tesla charging area at the WaWa I gas my company truck at, in Woodbridge NJ.
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Offline Chas

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #24 on: November 25, 2017, 08:45:25 AM »
So, let me see if I understand this.......the amateur futurists claim that in a few years, we'll pull out our cell phones and call for a Public Self Driving Transportation Module to show up and do our bidding. We all know how the Public takes care of items they either share or don't own. I can imaging calling for one of these Public modules to take me out to a fine restaurant. It pulls up, I open the door, and find.......half eaten pizza crusts, mud caked into the carpet, and gooey stains on the back seat. Doubt me?.......Two words........Public Restroom.
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Offline Steve Passmore

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #25 on: November 25, 2017, 04:16:06 PM »
You are so right. Perhaps all the redundant car workers can be employed cleaning them out every trip ;D
Steve

Offline tozerco

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #26 on: November 25, 2017, 08:20:04 PM »
Our Government has announced that the sale of Deisel or petrol cars will be banned here 20 years from now, and all will be electric I suppose?  That's crazy when there is no feasible alternative in place right now, plus successive governments will be able to amend and delay any such plans.  I don't see it happening.  Hundred years perhaps.
What beats the hell out of me is all these tree huggers advocating electric, but just where do they think the electric comes from? Mostly fossil fuel power stations in this country!!  There needs to be a much better way of harvesting and storing electricity for it to work.
Our government seems to always be under the impression that this small island can make a difference to the global warming. What nonsense when a country the size of China produces more CO2 in a few days that we do in a whole year, and they have no intention of stopping.  Sorry, my rant for the day.

Hey Steve....

Your electric future in the UK is in that nuclear stuff we had everyone tell us was a no-no forty years ago. Transformation! Most of what you have coming in the way of nuclear power isn't UK owned either.....
John Tozer
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Offline Steve Passmore

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #27 on: November 26, 2017, 02:38:19 AM »
Your so right John. The latest one being built is partly 'frog' owned. Governments are still debating how the UK leaving Europe will affect that as it won't be finished for years.  Its still only a small proportion of the total requirement though.
Steve

Offline tozerco

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #28 on: November 27, 2017, 07:44:47 PM »
Your so right John. The latest one being built is partly 'frog' owned. Governments are still debating how the UK leaving Europe will affect that as it won't be finished for years.  Its still only a small proportion of the total requirement though.

Wouldn't like to have the job of negotiating your "out"from the EU under these circumstances:

"There is a 2000 MW high-voltage DC connection with France and a 1000 MW one with the Netherlands; also a 1000 MW one with Belgium is under construction for 2018, and the 1400 MW Northconnect link over 750 km between Scotland and Norway will begin construction in 2019 for 2022 commissioning, partly funded by the EU. A further 2000 MW connection to Normandy was approved in September 2016 to enable the import of French nuclear power from 2022. In 2015 the France link ran at 81% capacity and the Netherlands one at 91%."
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Offline The Tassie Devil(le)

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #29 on: November 27, 2017, 08:00:59 PM »
So, to bring it back to Cadillac and LaSalle relationship, how many Cadillacs are using this power at the moment?

Any,?

Bruce. >:D
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Offline 35-709

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #30 on: November 28, 2017, 12:47:47 PM »
I think I read somewhere that you cannot commit suicide in a closed garage with the car running anymore. So how clean is that!

I guess Hollywood will need a new plot line to commit suicide... on second thought they are doing a good job of doing that to themselves lately with all the scandals.
No problem, people will just start electrocuting themselves.
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Offline "Cadillac Kid" Greg Surfas 15364

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #31 on: November 28, 2017, 01:45:03 PM »
Hey Geoff,
Although you probably will not get Cancer, lung disease or skin rashes, there is still enough Carbon Mon Oxide in the exhaust to finish the job,
Greg Surfas
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Offline wrench

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #32 on: November 28, 2017, 02:17:14 PM »
I'm thinking, if the damn things are running windows based software, I will be driving a car for the foreseeable future.



 

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Offline 35-709

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #33 on: November 28, 2017, 06:55:01 PM »
Hey Geoff,
Although you probably will not get Cancer, lung disease or skin rashes, there is still enough Carbon Mon Oxide in the exhaust to finish the job,
Greg Surfas
Hi Greg,
 ;D  I was thinking of all-electric cars with no internal combustion engine.
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Offline nysdarkblue

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #34 on: November 28, 2017, 07:52:17 PM »
I got a civil service job in 1984. I said to myself, self, "What would it be like in 20 years" Flying cars, jet packs etc... Nothing had changed in those 20 years. If these cars do come about, like everyone says, it will be a long time before it happens.
Bill Estes
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Offline g27g28

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #35 on: November 29, 2017, 07:28:02 PM »
I didn't read the article but I know what the predictions are.  What I will say is I will give up driving when they pry my the keys out of my cold dead hands lol. 
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Offline Maynard Krebs

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #36 on: December 01, 2017, 11:34:00 PM »
They've been talking about this stuff for years. Yes, it's happening slowly. But how are they going to get every car off the road, other than taking away the gas supply. The will be a revolution in the country if that happens. Would be easier to limit the amount of people entering the country to keep the population down. Why should everyone have to suffer because the country is overpopulated. It's one of the last guilty pleasures that I'm allowed to indulge in  >:D........
                                                                  Bobby.

Boy, is that ever the truth, Bobby!!!

Offline gary griffin

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Re: The end of the automotive era
« Reply #37 on: December 04, 2017, 04:29:56 PM »
I was in a Sedan company in Germany starting in 1960.  I found that moist of the guys from big cities like New York had no experience in driving cars and not really caring about cars, but those of us in rural areas and West coast had more passion about them.
Gary Griffin

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