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All Electric by 2035 and the collector car hobby.

Started by 76eldo, January 30, 2021, 01:15:57 PM

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76eldo

No politics please.

The vehicle manufacturers and the government are making noises about making all new vehicles electric by 2035.

I remember back in 1975 when they stopped making leaded gas that there were people predicting the demise of all antique cars.  Gonna kill the hobby they said.

We are all still here.

So if you have a collector cars
Brian Rachlin
Huntingdon Valley, Pa
I prefer email's not PM's rachlin@comcast.net

1960 62 Series Conv with Factory Tri Power
1970 DeVille Conv
1970 Eldo
1970 Caribu (?) "The Cadmino"
1973 Eldorado Conv Pace Car
1976 Eldorado Conv
1980 Eldorado H & E Conv
1993 Allante with Hardtop (X2)
2008 DTS
2012 CTS Coupe
2017 XT
1956 Thunderbird
1966 Olds Toronado

chrisntam

I would think gas prices will rise, due to increased regulation of fossil fuels, lower demand for gasoline and less crude output.

In 15 years will we be at the same place in our lives with these cars?  Maybe not.  That will lead to lower values on cars with ICE engines..

I'm not a fan of the direction this is going....  There's no recharging infrastructure, let alone the time needed for a recharge.

???
1970 Deville Convertible 
Dallas, Texas

mgrab

Whenever I see posts on this topic my mind immediately gravitates to the 1957 Plymouth that was buried in a courthouse lawn when new only to be opened 50 years later and awarded to a heir who guessed the population of the town 50 years later most closely.  The same people who thought that was a smart idea also thought they should put a 55 gallon drum of fuel in the trunk since we wouldn't be using it in 2007.

The math doesn't work.  Before I left the NE to move to the SE I worked in a plant that installed the largest solar panel array in the state.  This was about 2009 and it was big money and subsidized heavily by the government (aka us).  The idea was we could run the plant during curtailment in the summer months and sell back to the grid.  Well, when the day came to use it all we could run was the front office and maintenance shop - big win for $8M.

All the cars I see being touted are toys... 700 hp trucks and Mustangs.  When someone creates a modern day model T then worry but, I'm not seeing any single moms of three whose is  a waitress buying an EV anytime soon.  Don't forget all the industries and other uses for fuel.  I pitty the logger hauling a 200 lb battery in the air to cut a tree.

I think it will become rare and expensive... but we're a long ways from that.  I'm sure the bill will get passed before its read but once the "scientists" have done their part the real world engineers have to figure it out.
1941 Cadillac 6267D
1948 Packard Custom Eight Victoria
1956 Oldsmobile 88 Sedan

Abe Lugo

I mentioned it on another thread.  I’ll be looking at a CNG conversion to keep driving it all else fails. 

Even though no politics.  What will happen is that gas powered cars will be phased out slowly.  Be it via taxes or just new made up laws.  We will be the monkey in this and be moved along. 
Some of the goal is NO GAS POWERED CAR SALES by ‘35.  But that doesn’t mean the gas car will not be around.
If Diesel and CNG still exists in 15 years I think we may be ok for a bit. 

It’s just exponential growth of the EV without seeing what all the creation of batteries/trash will cause. 

I would say for about 50% of the members here. Will unfortunately not be around to worry about it. 

I would say enjoy driving your vintage car as much as possible the next 10 years. 
Abe Lugo  CLC#31763  Sunny Los Angeles,CA @abelugo IG

5390john

#4
The auto industry is under ENORMOUS pressure on a global scale to largely eliminate fossil fuels by around 2035.
It is going to happen.
Here's what else WILL happen:

1) Charging infrastructure will improve drastically to become roughly equivalent to a gas station on every corner, AND in your garage. It will happen sooner than you think.

2) Battery technology will improve dramatically. MUCH longer range and MUCH faster recharge times. GM already is testing solid state batteries, and someone WILL invent new paradigm technologies to keep improving energy storage capability. The reward for doing so is so great that it is impossible for it NOT to happen. Think of it this way; if you came up with the better mousetrap, the world will not only beat a path to your door, but you will have wealth as if you were the next Saudi Arabia.

3) Current battery technology is not practical for class 8 heavy trucks, BUT fuel cells are. The latest speculation is that the scale of renewable electrical energy (windmills, etc.) can be dramatically increased, to the point that there is more available than necessary. The excess can be used to manufacture hydrogen, which can be easily stored and used in fuel cells. GM has years of research and study on fuel cells, and it is about to become commercially viable. $$$$$

4) Gasoline will still be available, but due to supply and demand, the supply will gradually decrease as economies of scale gradually decrease, and price will go up as demand decreases and economies of scale decreases. GONNA HAPPEN! Collectible cars as we know them will still be cool, and they will get much more rare. As drivelines wear out, many IC drivelines will be replaced with electric motors and next generation (smaller and more powerful) batteries.

5) It is unlikely that electric cars will have a CAFE standard. There is no reason, other than limitations on physical size, to assume that oversize cars such as mid-70's Caddys will never again become available. Could happen, and my guess is that it will.

6) Manufacturers of electric vehicles will face a somewhat different business model than existing auto makers. Electric motors and drivelines are dramatically simpler than IC drivelines and the cost and infrastructure necessary to make an electric vehicle is considerably less. That will open the door to smaller, but very well capitalized manufacturing companies to go into the auto assembly business. That will result in more brands in the marketplace. These brands will compete for the consumer, resulting in winners and losers. Over time some of these brands and models will become collectible.

The history of the auto industry repeats itself and car junkies everywhere can continue the hobby.

My 2 cents worth!!
John Adams
1955 CDV "Marilyn"

"Panic Accordingly"

Clewisiii

Not on the topic of electrification.  But on the topic of oil. 

When oil is refined it is actually separated into different components.  Originally there were a lot of waste byproducts.  But now we have refined the process so that everything is used. We are actually at an equilibrium point with all of the plastics and other petrochemicals we use.

All petrochemicals and plastics are a different level in that processing.  The bottom tier is the sludge left over we use in asphalt. 

So if we keep using plastics and building roads, gas will just become a byproduct of the other production.  It will become really cheap. 

We say the same thing about leather.  Some people do not like leather seats because they think it is killing animals.  But no cow is killed for its leather. They are slaughtered for meat.  If we did not use the leather it would just be a big rotting pile of flesh in a landfill.

"My interest is in the future, because I am going to spend the rest of my life there."  Charles Kettering

TJ Hopland

Don't forget ethanol also killed off our hobby....... so if the lead didn't get you the ethanol did or would or wait we are still here?

There are for sure several electric cars available now and many people that have the perfect use case for said electric cars even without any sort of special charging infrastructure.    There are lots of people that don't drive more than 30 miles in a day and even the worst oldest electric cars will do that on one charge.  The worst cars take 20 hours to go from dead to full charge using a regular plug but what I read about those is the people with those don't tend to run them dead so they easily get back to full in the 10ish hours overnight.    Especially if its a multi car house it can really make sense.  You have one car that is basically the around town car and then the other one for longer trips. 

With the recent demise of our 90 CDV I have been looking at what to replace it with and I was seriously looking at getting a used electric car.   Got as close as a test drive and insurance quotes but the other 2 drivers in the house were not that excited about the model I was looking at,  they thought it was too small.  I think if I was looking at a Tesla they would have been more excited but that is a whole different game when it comes to costs and service. 
StPaul/Mpls, MN USA

73 Eldo convert w/FiTech EFI
80 Eldo Diesel
90 CDV
And other assorted stuff I keep buying for some reason

The Tassie Devil(le)

Not being political either, but don't forget that there were Electric cars right at the start of the automobile industry, and they were successful.

When will we be allowed to drive our electric cars on the Golf Course, to do away with the Golf Carts.

I tried to take my '60 CDV onto a Golf Course once, and they said I couldn't use my Caddy, because it was petrol-powered.

Bruce. >:D
'72 Eldorado Convertible (LHD)
'70 Ranchero Squire (RHD)
'74 Chris Craft Gull Wing (SH)
'02 VX Series II Holden Commodore SS Sedan
(Past President Modified Chapter)

Past Cars of significance - to me
1935 Ford 3 Window Coupe
1936 Ford 5 Window Coupe
1937 Chevrolet Sports Coupe
1955 Chevrolet Convertible
1959 Ford Fairlane Ranch Wagon
1960 Cadillac CDV
1972 Cadillac Eldorado Coupe

mgrab

I think this comes down to rebates and subsidies.  The ICE never needed to be subsidized by the federal government because it was better.  If EVs can stand on their own so be it... but, if it needs to be subsidized then eventually we will run out of other people's money.
1941 Cadillac 6267D
1948 Packard Custom Eight Victoria
1956 Oldsmobile 88 Sedan

chrisntam

Quote from: 5390john on January 30, 2021, 07:45:35 PM

4) Gasoline will still be available, but due to supply and demand, the supply will gradually decrease as economies of scale gradually decrease, and price will go up as demand decreases and economies of scale decreases. GONNA HAPPEN! Collectible cars as we know them will still be cool, and they will get much more rare. As drivelines wear out, many IC drivelines will be replaced with electric motors and next generation (smaller and more powerful) batteries.

My 2 cents worth!!
John Adams

Sounds like we'll be like Cuba was in the '60s & '70s.

>:(
1970 Deville Convertible 
Dallas, Texas

D.Smith

No this doesn't bode well for the future collectibles for sure.   As it is now you are already seeing collectors of late model cars complaining about the electronics in cars 15-25 years old.   Junk yards don't keep cars around as long they did years ago.  Replacement parts are getting harder to find.   Dealers don't want to support anything more than 10-15 years old.     

The shift away from fossil fuels to run our cars is a "feel good" gesture for the people who want to save the world, but don't know anything about it.   The average person has no idea where our electricity comes from or how its made.   Those batteries?   Do people have any idea of the toxic materials in them?    Their lifespan and cost?  Are they recyclable?   


Another thing that is happening is the publics acceptance of Uber and Lift services.  Young people are not rushing to get a drivers license the way we did.   Car ownership is less attractive to them.    Do you think young people really care about the make and model of the car that shuttles them around?     

Once self driving cars are perfected, we will see another shift in the industry.   With the drivers out of the picture, these self driving cars will be owned by companies like Taxis were.  The public will summon them on their smart phones.  Fewer and fewer people will see the need to own cars.  Autonomous pods don't need brand  names.  Your Amazon pod awaits.    Car companies will begin to fade away.   

Oh and does anyone else see the irony the the largest state to mandate all electric cars by 2035 is California?   How are you going to charge up those cars during the rolling blackouts that are common now there?   



autoluke

Kudos to 5390John.

A lot of wishful thinking out there, but the facts are that electric cars are coming SOON.
Just follow the recent announcements from the UAW, where they are asking our government to plan on providing support ( tax dollars) to help current car builders during the transition. 

Here comes too big to fail once again.
Phil Lukens

Clewisiii

Sandy Munro of Munro and associates said in an interview , " I would not invest money in any company currently making transmissions"

The OEMs will be able to shift.  Their biggest gut and retool will be in engine casting plants.  They may have to drop a lot of employees there.

But the supplier base that produces transmissions, exhaust systems, fuel injection, etc will be completely out of business unless they transition to an entirely new commodity.   
"My interest is in the future, because I am going to spend the rest of my life there."  Charles Kettering

Big Apple Caddy

In many ways, electric cars were actually preferred over ICE cars 100+ years ago despite their higher average prices.  As people started to travel longer distances, ICE eventually won out because EVs at the time didn't have the desired range.  Today's battery technology is much better than it was back then, and will continue to improve.  It probably won't be too long before range and charging infrastructure factors won't be an issue. However, ICE and hybrid ICE vehicles are still expected to dominate for a while.

I also think advancing technologies will improve capabilities to restore/refurbish cars in the future which will help keep the hobby alive.  Generation after generation, classic car enthusiasts of a given time often seem to think that modern cars of that time won't be collectible and the hobby will die off BUT it's still around.

How future government regulations regarding fossil fuels, ICE powered cars, etc. may impact things for the hobby is still an unknown, of course.

fishnjim

This too will change.
It's a feel good exercise based in futility, in my opinion.   After I'm gone, you can do what you please, but you'll have to pry it out of my cold dead hands...
I've been studying this and the Lithium supply for batteries is an achilles heel right now and in the future.   Not all the batteries are polymer so still major risk of fire in crash.   
So don't believe all the political hype.   Gos-low as the stooges say.  I think GM will have another Saturn on it's hands.
Electric actually consumes more energy when you factor in the production and distribution.   We already know how restrictive individual solar powered cars are.   Hooking up to the gird is not practical.   If you run out of gas, you can get a ride to get a can, but if you're battery is depleted in timbukto, there's no option.   Not economical to put charging stations all over.   Might as well have trolley cars.   If the govt pays for charging stations, you're still paying for it.   So where's the economic gain?   Historically, OPEC has dropped the prices everytime one of these things get going, so there's that threat as well.   Makes it uneconomical.   Then what?   
Just because the vehicle going down the street has no tailpipe emissions, there's something somewhere to make the juice and the parts for them.   Price of copper, etc factors in as well.
I recall in the late '50s, early '60s, the govt and electric producers predicted that nuclear energy would be so cheap, they would not have to meter it.   Look how that whopper failed for starters as to the track record of all politics.
Fact is with the rising global population we need ALL forms of energy to maintain our living std.   If covid thins the herd, we'll be back to gas.

savemy67

Hello all,

Lots of good discussion points here.  I'll add one or two more.

In 1955, the U.S. Department of the Interior published a bulletin titled "Lithium Resources of North America".  Among other things, the bulletin indicated sources of Lithium on the continent.  The amount of Lithium in the U.S. was sufficient for the uses of Lithium prior to the 1970s, when developmental work began on Lithium batteries.

While Lithium mining has been around since the late 19th Century, Lithium was not used for batteries until about 30 years ago.   There is no where near enough Lithium in North America to satisfy the demand for Lithium batteries for electric vehicles (EVs).  If EVs, powered by Lithium batteries are mandated by 2035, then we need to invade and colonize Bolivia.

Of course, batteries need not be made from Lithium.  Some other element could be used.  However, in the past there has been about a 20 year development period with all newer battery technology, so the time to start developing a non-Lithium battery was five years ago.

But why would we want to rely on any battery technology that uses extractive processes?  This seems to undermine the rationale to use EVs.  I am reasonably comfortable thinking that Hydrogen is the way to go - whether as fuel cells or directly burned in my '67's 429.  Today, all of our Cadillacs could be converted to run on compressed natural gas, at a relatively small cost.  When I am fully retired, this will be one of my projects.

To quote David Smith, "The average person has no idea where our electricity comes from or how its made."  Perhaps the thing that should be mandated by 2035 is that all elected representatives take 2 years of physics and chemistry.

Respectfully submitted,

Christopher Winter
Christopher Winter
1967 Sedan DeVille hardtop

OliVDB

Well, it's my opinion that one shouldn't be able to get elected without at least 5 years' worth of studying in something that has an actual application: physics, agriculture, medical science, military affairs... and then, get 2 years of political formation aimed at whatever responsibility they're aiming for.

Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621

#17
Quote from: fishnjim on January 31, 2021, 09:46:34 AM
It's a feel good exercise based in futility, in my opinion. 

That's all it is, but I would also add stupidity & willful ignorance

Nobody has any business dictating (by whatever means) what the free market should be deciding for itself. It is outrageous, immoral and should be condemned. 
A Cadillac Motorcar is a Possession for which there is no Acceptable Substitute

chrisntam

Not being political either, but I don't (and didn't) support the direction this country is currently heading.  We just became energy independent and now it's all going towards the terlit.

We all better sell our Cadillacs now before the market for them craters.

According to Google:

What country is the greatest polluter?
Top 5 most polluting countries:
China (30%) The world's most populated country has an enormous export market, which has seen its industry grow to become a serious danger to the planet. ...
United States (15%) The world's biggest industrial and commercial power. ...
India (7%) ...
Russia (5%) ...
Japan (4%)

You think China and the others are going to play along?   ::)
1970 Deville Convertible 
Dallas, Texas

Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621

A Cadillac Motorcar is a Possession for which there is no Acceptable Substitute