All Electric by 2035 and the collector car hobby.

[cadillacmike68]

I'm curious of those that are in the 'have to recharge in 5 mins' camp how often do you have to go more than say 200 miles in one day?

More than you would think, especially in spread out areas.

And this goes back to my earlier post. If an EV can't go 800+ miles without recharging, then it's not for me.

[59-in-pieces]

Here from the cheap seats, may I offer a couple issues which might greatly help or negatively influence the future of EV's of any kind or purpose.

Millennials with their "I DESERVE free stuff" attitudes. -------- the paradigm switch to "don't buy, but lease" (planned obsolescence and the disposability of all things), facilitated with likely larger subsidies (than currently available) from the government to force the quicker transition away from oil to electricity to foster their agenda.

The Counter Culture which has so quickly grown in strength and influence. -------- "Out with the old in with the new", a simple recognition is that there are A LOT MORE folks who buy new or recently new cars, than classics, so underlining and defining the timeline of the future of the currently structured auto industries, and more personally, this hobby (largely Classic Cars of long gone eras bought, sold, and owned by aging members).

And my personal favorite - perhaps the off switch to it all - an EMP, Electromagnetic Pulse. -------- not yet available as a fully defensible protection. -------- electronics would be fried, not just a quick recharge would solve.  A sort of, "putting all your eggs in one basket" foolishness.

OK, let the ostrich brigade start whistling in the dark, after drinking their fortifying COOL AID.

Have fun,
Steve B.

[hornetball]

Where would we be now if people weren't irrationally afraid of nuclear power?  "Radiation" says the girl sunbathing on the beach.

So long as policy continues to be made by the ignorant elected by the ignorant . . . .

[5390john]

There is a fascinating and extensive article in todays Wall Street Journal that relates to this topic.
It's posted online but you might have to be a subscriber to see it, not sure.

www.wsj.com/articles/the-battery-is-ready-to-power-the-world

In a nutshell, better batteries and renewable energy are coming and getting better and cheaper MUCH faster than expected and the trend will continue for the foreseeable future.
I would be interested in seeing informed comments on the forum from people who have READ THE ARTICLE!
John Adams   
       

[Anderson]

I got a 404-Page Not Found error.

On range potential: If you were to take the full-size car bodies of the late 1960s/early 1970s (or after the first wave of downsizing in the late 1970s), you have somewhere in the ballpark of 220 inches of body length to "play" with.  If you could take that extra length (extend the hood, extend the trunk, take your pick) and use it to double up on battery capacity, even accounting for the added weight you could probably "solve" the range problem right now (even if MPGe took a mild whack in the process) by doubling (or tripling) energy storage capacity.

On range issues in general: I'd point out that "range at time of sale" and "range over time" are not the same.  Per a Car and Driver piece:
"We were of course curious to see how our car's pack is faring over time, and the geektastic TeslaFi software we've used to track our car's more than 24,000 miles and each of the 842 times we've plugged it in has an answer...TeslaFi's battery-tracking tool puts our pack at 93 percent of its original 75.0-kWh capacity, a loss of about 22 miles of rated range from the original 310-mile EPA combined figure. This is based on the range data from the nearly 500 times we've charged our car to 90 percent of its capacity or above (see graph below)." [1]

The authors admit that their charging patterns aren't optimal, but that on a fleet average the loss is probably about 18 miles or so per a chart in the thread...which is still less than ideal.  The problem is still that whereas a standard gas car "dumping" that sort of mileage would simply mean more trips to the gas station (and memorizing where the nearest Costco/BJ's/Sam's Club was to one's routing), and for diesel a bit more mental work due to relative availability, for an electric car the risk of bleeding that sort of mileage on a charge runs a risk of turning into a serious inconvenience and hassle.  For example, at the 100k mile mark you're easily adding a charge (or two) to a trip from DC to Florida [2], which falls under the banner of "reasonable one-day trip".

This all goes back to a point I've made in multiple places: You really need something like a 400-mile "official" range to make a 300-mile range work, since after 4-5 years of regular use a 300-mile range...isn't, so you're now dipping down into a 300-mile range that is now perhaps 240-250 and needing to adjust from there (so your "practical" range starts dipping under 200 miles, depending on driving patterns and other conditions).

So at least for the moment, we're back to my cynicism about this really "taking" for another generation or so of cars.  We're /getting/ there, but we're not there yet.

===== ===== ===== ===== =====

Honestly, I find GM's stance to be somewhat boggling.  I get the signal they're sending and the pressures at play, but what I probably would have said is this:
"We expect to transition 80-90% of our production to electric by 2035.  The remainder, we expect to remain gas/diesel-based, because we have customers whose use cases aren't well-suited to electric vehicles.  In line with this, we expect to fully transition Cadillac and Buick to electric engines but we also expect that GMC will retain a significant internal combustion customer base and there may be some limited carry-over into Chevrolet given similar situations."

And TBF if I was in Ford's shoes I'd actually announce something like that as a response to GM's stance ("We recognize that use cases vary, so while we'll be doing X, Y, and Z as part of a transition, we're also going to keep producing a gas-powered F-150 for as long as market conditions permit it.")


[1] https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35203450/tesla-model-3-battery-capacity-loss-warranty/
[2] Going to the math, DC to Orlando is right under 850 miles.  850/310=2.74, so if you start off close to full I'd presume two en-route charges would probably cut it (maybe with a supplemental charge if you're nervous around Palm Coast/Daytona Beach).  850/217 (70% of 310, which is what Tesla warranties batteries at for a 120k mile/8 year battery life)=3.92, so I really wouldn't expect to make it on three en route charges (since charger locations are not yet anywhere close to optimal).

[Big Apple Caddy]

There is a fascinating and extensive article in todays Wall Street Journal that relates to this topic.
It's posted online but you might have to be a subscriber to see it, not sure.

www.wsj.com/articles/the-battery-is-ready-to-power-the-world

In a nutshell, better batteries and renewable energy are coming and getting better and cheaper MUCH faster than expected and the trend will continue for the foreseeable future.

That is basically it in a nutshell.  There has been and will continue to be rapid advancements in charging and battery technologies, production efficiencies, etc.

One question is what will happen to the costs and availability of battery raw materials as demand continues to grow.  There are also questions regarding improvements and changes to electricity production and distribution systems.  These are things that will (need to be) addressed in the coming years/decades similar to how oil/gas issues have needed to be addressed over time.

[Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621]

Happy reading folks.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tilakdoshi/2020/08/02/the-dirty-secrets-of-clean-electric-vehicles/?sh=642acc58650b&fbclid=IwAR3QA-zw31N9u0Oc_5cyALocSYfP5dnRnoolLh0-BT8omd6wcE9YzrPkMM8

[Big Apple Caddy]

Happy reading folks.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tilakdoshi/2020/08/02/the-dirty-secrets-of-clean-electric-vehicles/?sh=642acc58650b&fbclid=IwAR3QA-zw31N9u0Oc_5cyALocSYfP5dnRnoolLh0-BT8omd6wcE9YzrPkMM8

I’m shocked that a current Senior Research Fellow at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and someone who has worked so extensively in the oil, gas and petroleum sectors as the author has would be anti-EV.  /S   (sarcasm)


A rebuttal (NOT mine) to the article:
This poorly researched opinion piece contains all the classic anti EV propaganda, which we have heard from the fossil fuel industry before and have been debunked by independent scientists and researchers.  The author paints the picture of children mining cobalt in Africa which contradicts the clean image of Electric Vehicles.

And then goes on to quote from one professor "Kelly", who says we would need huge amounts of Lithium, Cobalt, Copper etc, if the world is to transition to electric mobility. And mining all this minerals would cause huge environmental issues for the world.

While we totally abhor the use of child labor, Mr Tilak Doshi, has no clue and does not understand the reality of the Indian electric vehicle scene. Most electric vehicles sold in India use the Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery, which does not use Cobalt at all. Tesla has contracted LG Chem and CATL to make the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.

Another fact that these anti EV articles won't even bother to mention is that an Electric vehicles use few kgs of Lithium and other minerals, over a 12-13 year period. Remember batteries have second, third lives and minerals can be recycled.

Compare that to thousands of litres of oil that internal combustion vehicles burn over their lifetime. Not to mention the pollution caused in our cities and 0 recyclability of oil. The environmental impact of oil is way more than minerals used in a battery.

Oh, then there is innovation happening with mining firms open to more sustainable raw-material extraction with focus on water management, emissions reduction and recycling. Also the world has enough lithium and other minerals to last many decades.

Also, if the author is criticising lithium mining operations in Chile, Africa, how about also discussing the terrible environmental impact of extracting shale gas in the USA or crude oil in Nigeria or talk about the huge environmental issues with the oil industry.

Of course, Mr Tilak who has worked in the Oil industry won’t choose to see the reality regarding EV batteries or talk about how damaging the fossil fuel industry is to the planet and our cities.

And then Mr Tilak raises the usual coal complaint and claims Electric vehicles cause more pollution.   It's hard to believe at this stage of the game that anyone still believes that old red herring - about coal and electric vehicles. It has been proven again and again that fueling an electric car/scooter with electricity produced from coal power plants is still cleaner, cheaper and more efficient than using petrol or diesel.

Ultimately Mr Tilak Doshi and other EV cynics are people, who take delight in sensational or dramatic headlines like the "Dirty Secrets Of ‘Clean’ Electric Vehicles".

To them we will say "your time is up" and quote Nikola Tesla - "Electric power is everywhere present in unlimited quantities and can drive the world's machinery and vehicles without the need of coal, oil, gas"
https://www.pluginindia.com/electricvehiclegossip.html


And the debate goes on........

[Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621]

I’m shocked that a current Senior Research Fellow at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and someone who has worked so extensively in the oil, gas and petroleum sectors as the author has would be anti-EV.  /S   (sarcasm)


A rebuttal (NOT mine) to the article:
This poorly researched opinion piece contains all the classic anti EV propaganda, which we have heard from the fossil fuel industry before and have been debunked by independent scientists and researchers. 

Before going further I'd like to know who these "independent scientists and researchers" are, and perhaps more importantly, who's writing the paychecks for all this "debunkery" to be done.

Until then, it doesn't appear you have anything better cooked up either and the last thing I trust is being given marching orders- especially when done under the cloak of altruism.

As you say, the debate goes on...

[bcroe]

There is great optimism about batteries, but after 2 centuries of
development, I will believe what is actually delivered, not predictions. 
Keep in mind, those ranges are for ideal condition, not climbing
mountains and running the heater hard as frequently has happened
here in the land of snow and well below zero (-12F today). 
Bruce Roe

[Anderson]

There is great optimism about batteries, but after 2 centuries of
development, I will believe what is actually delivered, not predictions. 
Keep in mind, those ranges are for ideal condition, not climbing
mountains and running the heater hard as frequently has happened
here in the land of snow and well below zero (-12F today). 
Bruce Roe

Or blowing the AC hard against 100+ heat in the summer (which doesn't have the same battery-draining issues as the cold, but has its own problems).

[cadillacmike68]

There is great optimism about batteries, but after 2 centuries of
development, I will believe what is actually delivered, not predictions. 
Keep in mind, those ranges are for ideal condition, not climbing
mountains and running the heater hard as frequently has happened
here in the land of snow and well below zero (-12F today).   
Bruce Roe   

Remember the prediction that computing power would double every few years??
Well that fizzled out over the past 10 years.

There's only so much you can do with the elements and their reactions there is a point of diminishing returns.

[Big Apple Caddy]

Tesla and Lucid are each expected to be releasing models this year with over 500 miles range.  The Tesla Roadster, due out next year, is expected to have a range of over 600 miles.  By comparison and since this is a GM/Cadillac focused forum, the 2-seater General Motors EV1 had an EPA estimated range of 55 miles (lead-acid battery) to 105 miles (NiMH battery) at the end of its run in 1999.

[MaR]

I got a 404-Page Not Found error.

On range potential: If you were to take the full-size car bodies of the late 1960s/early 1970s (or after the first wave of downsizing in the late 1970s), you have somewhere in the ballpark of 220 inches of body length to "play" with.  If you could take that extra length (extend the hood, extend the trunk, take your pick) and use it to double up on battery capacity, even accounting for the added weight you could probably "solve" the range problem right now (even if MPGe took a mild whack in the process) by doubling (or tripling) energy storage capacity.

On range issues in general: I'd point out that "range at time of sale" and "range over time" are not the same.  Per a Car and Driver piece:
"We were of course curious to see how our car's pack is faring over time, and the geektastic TeslaFi software we've used to track our car's more than 24,000 miles and each of the 842 times we've plugged it in has an answer...TeslaFi's battery-tracking tool puts our pack at 93 percent of its original 75.0-kWh capacity, a loss of about 22 miles of rated range from the original 310-mile EPA combined figure. This is based on the range data from the nearly 500 times we've charged our car to 90 percent of its capacity or above (see graph below)." [1]

The authors admit that their charging patterns aren't optimal, but that on a fleet average the loss is probably about 18 miles or so per a chart in the thread...which is still less than ideal.  The problem is still that whereas a standard gas car "dumping" that sort of mileage would simply mean more trips to the gas station (and memorizing where the nearest Costco/BJ's/Sam's Club was to one's routing), and for diesel a bit more mental work due to relative availability, for an electric car the risk of bleeding that sort of mileage on a charge runs a risk of turning into a serious inconvenience and hassle.  For example, at the 100k mile mark you're easily adding a charge (or two) to a trip from DC to Florida [2], which falls under the banner of "reasonable one-day trip".

This all goes back to a point I've made in multiple places: You really need something like a 400-mile "official" range to make a 300-mile range work, since after 4-5 years of regular use a 300-mile range...isn't, so you're now dipping down into a 300-mile range that is now perhaps 240-250 and needing to adjust from there (so your "practical" range starts dipping under 200 miles, depending on driving patterns and other conditions).

So at least for the moment, we're back to my cynicism about this really "taking" for another generation or so of cars.  We're /getting/ there, but we're not there yet.

===== ===== ===== ===== =====

Honestly, I find GM's stance to be somewhat boggling.  I get the signal they're sending and the pressures at play, but what I probably would have said is this:
"We expect to transition 80-90% of our production to electric by 2035.  The remainder, we expect to remain gas/diesel-based, because we have customers whose use cases aren't well-suited to electric vehicles.  In line with this, we expect to fully transition Cadillac and Buick to electric engines but we also expect that GMC will retain a significant internal combustion customer base and there may be some limited carry-over into Chevrolet given similar situations."

And TBF if I was in Ford's shoes I'd actually announce something like that as a response to GM's stance ("We recognize that use cases vary, so while we'll be doing X, Y, and Z as part of a transition, we're also going to keep producing a gas-powered F-150 for as long as market conditions permit it.")


[1] https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35203450/tesla-model-3-battery-capacity-loss-warranty/
[2] Going to the math, DC to Orlando is right under 850 miles.  850/310=2.74, so if you start off close to full I'd presume two en-route charges would probably cut it (maybe with a supplemental charge if you're nervous around Palm Coast/Daytona Beach).  850/217 (70% of 310, which is what Tesla warranties batteries at for a 120k mile/8 year battery life)=3.92, so I really wouldn't expect to make it on three en route charges (since charger locations are not yet anywhere close to optimal).

My Model S has ~87,000 miles on it now and I have lost around 4% of it's total range as indicated by the range readout on the instrument cluster. With that said, I can easily beat that range estimate or I can come up vastly short just by driving style. This is no different than in a conventional car. My wife's car has a longer range than mine (rated for 310 miles) and we have taken that car on a  565 mile one way trip with one stop many times. In reality though, two shorter stops is actually faster since you will be charging in area of the battery range that can receive the highest current. In that range (between 10% and 70%), her car can get 100 miles of range in under 10 minutes. The bottom line is that unless you are driving hundreds of miles at a time regularly and you have a very set schedule that you have to maintain, charging on the road is not really that much of an issue.

[MaR]

I don't know much about the system but does it have a self charging feature in the system, similar to an generator/alternator? I can imagine that also there may be solar panels incorporated into the hood/roof/trunk of the cars.

All EVs recapture deceleration when you brake and convert it back into electricity to recharge the batteries. This usually extends the range about about 10 to 15% in day to day driving. At this point, solar panes would be a net loss in range. The added weight could not be recovered by the meager amount of power that they could produce. A large vehicle with every horizontal surface covered solar panels would only be able produce about 500 watts in full sunlight.

[bcroe]

Optimum range happens non stop.  Regenerative braking is no where
near 100% efficient, the more braking you do, the shorter the range. 
The hybrids could help, but then why bother dragging around that
huge dead battery? 

The sun produces tons of energy, but it is only intense a short time
each day, and for many cloudy days, perhaps only 10% of peak hits
the ground.  Solar panels only get about 20% of that energy, and only
if they are aligned perpendicular to the rays.  I have a solar array 300
feet long and 10 feet high, on average it can supply this location, could
charge an EV most summer days.  You only get to drive it at night. 
Overall its sun energy collecting efficiency is less than 2%.  What could
be accomplished with vehicle mounted panels is essentially useless. 
Bruce Roe

[Tonyv_73]

 I hope that we can continue to drive our wonderful classics for a few more generations.  Theres nothing like the smell of burning gas and that old interior smell from a classic car. That being said I welcome the change,  I'd like to think that with the decline and abundance of gasoline these cars can be enjoyed much longer by someone.  And if it comes down to having to swap out our gas tanks for batteries and motors/transmissions to electric motors, I trust that there will be companies out there to cater to us.  Take a look at those "zelectric" cars on the west coast, it makes me hopeful that I can enjoy the drive of a big old cadillac even if I have to make some modifications.  Automated driving on the other hand F*** that, LOL

[TJ Hopland]

Something like a pickup or even larger trucks seem like they would have a much better chance of coming up with some sort of standardized swapable battery module or modules.    With cars the amount of available space would be a pretty limiting factor.

With the pickup maybe its got a built in battery that gets you the 100 miles you often need most of the time but there is a bigger one that slides into the bed for extended range when you need it?   Maybe this other battery will just be rented?   'Gas stations' will have them?   Maybe you have it normally plugged into your house for increased off peak or solar storage?   

[Big Apple Caddy]

I drive a loaded pickup 450 miles one way every couple weeks. I'm intrigued by the Lordstown Motors electric pick up truck that's coming out this year but with a 250 mile maximum range, it just isn't going to do the job.

Full size Silverado/Sierra-like electric pickups, including ranges of over 400 miles, are among the vehicles GM is expected to launch by 2025.  Ford, Ram, Rivian and perhaps others will likely have similar pickups/ranges by then too.

[MaR]

I hope that we can continue to drive our wonderful classics for a few more generations.  Theres nothing like the smell of burning gas and that old interior smell from a classic car. That being said I welcome the change,  I'd like to think that with the decline and abundance of gasoline these cars can be enjoyed much longer by someone.  And if it comes down to having to swap out our gas tanks for batteries and motors/transmissions to electric motors, I trust that there will be companies out there to cater to us.  Take a look at those "zelectric" cars on the west coast, it makes me hopeful that I can enjoy the drive of a big old cadillac even if I have to make some modifications.  Automated driving on the other hand F*** that, LOL

I cannot think of a better car for an EV conversion than a classic land yacht. The point of those cars is to be smooth, quiet, and effortless and what better way than a virtually silent drivetrain with ample torque and no gears to shift.