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NYTimes: "When Cars Do All The Driving, Who Will Feel The Joy"

Started by James Landi, June 19, 2018, 04:25:34 PM

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James Landi


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/14/business/autonomous-cars-enthusiasts.html

Has some interesting ideas that add to our discussion regarding the future for automotive enthusiasts.   Happy day,   James

D.Smith


64\/54Cadillacking

That is why it is vastly important that we all cherish and drive our beloved Cadillacs as long as we can before driving becomes illegal in the near future.

I love to drive in general, not just my classics. So to take that away from me would be devastating. I won’t care to take an autonomous car unless I’m extremely tired and can’t drive so I hop in a pod and go. But other than that, give me my car keys! 8)
Currently Rides:
1964 Sedan Deville
1954 Cadillac Fleetwood 60 Special
1979 Lincoln Mark V Cartier Designer Series
2007 Lexus LS 460L (extended wheelbase edition)

Previous Rides:
1987 Brougham D' Elegance
1994 Fleetwood Bro
1972 Sedan Deville
1968 Coupe Deville
1961 Lincoln Continental
1993 Lincoln Town Car Signature Series
1978 Lincoln Continental ( R.I.P.) 1978-2024 😞

D.Smith

I watched the full Lutz interview on Autoline and it was scary.     But he makes some valid points.   Once companies like Uber start using driverless cars companies will just develop generic pods.   With a pod at your demand via your smart phone, people will stop buying cars.   That will put many car companies right of business.  Not every car company will want to develop a pod car.  Most people wont care what pod picks them up.  And only fleets will be buying them anyways.  So the selection will dwindle and vary only in size for the number of passengers it needs to pickup.   Sure you may care what make and model luxury car you rent today, but think about the black car service cars we have today?  Do you get fussy when you hire a black car at the airport and its a Navigator and not an Escalade?   The kids today in ten years wont care what brand or color pod picks them up.   

And just think of the jobs that will be lost.   Car companies will close.  Dealers will close.   Parts suppliers, car insurance, the number of jobs that revolve around the auto industry is staggering.     

Basically what we are facing in the next ten years is the same type of change that happened when the automobile replaced the horse and buggy.    Who ever thought we'd live to see this day come?

Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621

There will always be a market for the exclusive, high end etc. Even in the horse & buggy days there was differentiation. The mule and buckboard of the farmer was a far cry from the brace of Arabian prize horses and coach of the Gilded Age elite.

I don't see any great net loss of jobs either. Maybe some shifting in production resources from traditional "cars" to "pods" or whatever.

The making of any long range predictions, in my view is rather premature at this stage.
A Cadillac Motorcar is a Possession for which there is no Acceptable Substitute

Big Apple Caddy

There has always been a large portion of the population that doesn't particularly like driving.  It is more a necessity or convenience to get from A to B.  Those folks will find semi-autonomous or autonomous cars appealing.

There are some who can't drive for whatever reasons.  They too will find semi-autonomous or autonomous cars appealing.

People into the latest gadgets or technology will also find semi-autonomous or autonomous cars appealing.

Even driving enthusiasts who like to drive on quieter back roads but not in heavy traffic may find semi-autonomous or autonomous cars appealing. 

People who like driving all the time in all conditions have long been in the minority but I am confident that the ability to drive new cars "manually" will be there for a very long time to come.

Of course, the feeling or concern that modern cars are too gadget heavy or too easy to operate is nothing new.  Below is a quote from over 60 years ago (1955) from the then president of the Classic Car Club of America:
"Modern cars are too full of gadgets, too easy to operate.  It's like sitting in a living room and pushing a button.  We like some movement.  We like the gear shift on the gear box, like the feel of shifting the gears, when you get to know your own transmission."

D.Smith

My new car has adaptive cruise control.   You know, the type you set a speed and distance you want to maintain the distance between you and the car in front of you.    So you still steer, but you don't have to really do much else,  your car will slow to match the speed of traffic on the highway if things slow down.    I was using it in the car pool lane once and it was really perfect.   The cars cruise radar locked onto the car in front of me and off we went like a line of ducks.  It was impressive.     But in mixed traffic it has its pros and cons.     You can set a speed like regular cruise and you hum along.   Then someone passes you on the left and slides over right in front of you in the "gap" you set and then your car then slows down to maintain that gap until the other car gets far enough ahead of you.   That was annoying.     

What really scared me was the day I was driving a different car.  It had regular cruise control.   I set it on the highway and got in the middle lane.   Eventually I came up on a slower car.   I suddenly had to scramble to brake and pass them as I was so used to the car slowing for me. 

So yes I can see some situations where a self driving feature like Cadillacs new "Super Cruise" would be great, like rush hour bumper to bumper traffic.    But as much as most of us love actual driving, just look at the 16 year olds today.   Most have little desire to get a drivers license let alone a car of their own.   That is the generation that will embrace Uber self driving Google cars.

Glen

The pods described seem to cater to the office worker that carries little more than a briefcase and a lunch.  I assume organizations like the power company or the gas company would have their own fleet of truck pods loaded with the tools the crew needs.  To maintain tool inventory in the pod they would be assigned to one crew or individual.  But what about the do it yourselfer?  Last week I decided my sliding screen door was beyond repair. I loaded it into my pickup, took it to the screen shop and they made me a new one.  I loaded the new one in the truck and took it home.  Would I be able to do that with the pods?  What if I wanted to build something?  Can I call a pod and load a dozed 10 foot 2 X 4s in it to take it home?   I do volunteer work and need tools. My pickup has tool box in the back, I carry them back and forth to the volunteer job.  Will I be able to do that? 

What about long distance trips?  If you wanted to drive from LA to Yellowstone park?  Can you take a pod? 

Many questions to be answered. 
Glen Houlton CLC #727 
CLCMRC benefactor #104

James Landi

Quote from: Glen on June 20, 2018, 03:43:57 AM
The pods described seem to cater to the office worker that carries little more than a briefcase and a lunch.  I assume organizations like the power company or the gas company would have their own fleet of truck pods loaded with the tools the crew needs.  To maintain tool inventory in the pod they would be assigned to one crew or individual.  But what about the do it yourselfer?  Last week I decided my sliding screen door was beyond repair. I loaded it into my pickup, took it to the screen shop and they made me a new one.  I loaded the new one in the truck and took it home.  Would I be able to do that with the pods?  What if I wanted to build something?  Can I call a pod and load a dozed 10 foot 2 X 4s in it to take it home?   I do volunteer work and need tools. My pickup has tool box in the back, I carry them back and forth to the volunteer job.  Will I be able to do that? 

What about long distance trips?  If you wanted to drive from LA to Yellowstone park?  Can you take a pod? 

Many questions to be answered.


Glen makes some great points regarding automotive  utility and flexibility. However, I suspect at some future date and time, specialized "pods" will be available, and vacation bound pods will take folks to popular places.   The point of the NYT's article focused on the "driving experience" that a self driver doesn't provide, and yet, I can't help but recall that it was not long ago when highway signs stated that horses and animal propulsion in general was forbidden.   So will the auto enthusiast be permitted on roadways electronically controlled-- at some point-- likely not. However, that inflection point is decades away, and likely not within my life time to experience.  Happy day,  James 

Mike Josephic CLC #3877

#9
I believe there is a possibility that the "pod era" could
arrive -- but I'll bet would be 50 years into the future
if at all.  Most of us will not have to worry about it.

I remember very well in the 1950's the Popular Science
articles that predicted we would all be flying to work
and elsewhere in self directed pods.  I'm still waiting
for that to happen.

Bob Lutz is quite an interesting guy and I've heard him
speak.  He used to pilot a helicopter to GM's HQ as his
daily transportation.  He was a visonary automotive
exectutive in his time.

However, considering that old Bob just hit 86 years of
age this year, his conceptual thinking cap might be
getting just a bit rusty.  I would take his predictions
with a large grain of salt.

Mike




1955 Cadillac Eldorado
1973 Cadillac Eldorado
1995 Cadillac Seville
2004 Escalade
1997 GMC Suburban 4X4, 454 engine, 3/4 ton
custom built by Santa Fe in Evansville, IN
2011 Buick Lucerne CX
-------------------------------------
CLCMRC Museum Benefactor #38
Past: VP International Affiliates, Museum Board Director, President / Director Pittsburgh Region

Rich S

Lots of interesting comments to the articles!

I have read that autonomous vehicles are still greatly hindered by two things:  1.  Weather conditions, especially in areas where ice, sleet, snow and other forms of precipitation are variable and weather conditions change suddenly, such as with hilly terrain.   2.   Road imperfections, such as the typical "pothole" or heavily cracked or uneven pavements.

In addition, other articles have alluded to the inability of an autonomous vehicle to make a judgmental decision, such as whether to swerve into the pathway of oncoming traffic or to hit two pedestrians who step off the sidewalk in front of the vehicle unexpectedly, or to hit a fixed light pole on the roadside? And that begs the question of liability, if the decision results in harm to someone. Is it the fault of the software? The pod manufacturer? It seems to me that the foregoing will hinder the rapid adoption of these autonomous vehicles into our culture, although I feel certain that over a greater time frame, their arrival is inevitable.
Rich Sullivan CLC #11473

1971 Eldo Conv., 2013 CTS Cpe

wrench

Not sure if I have posted here about Hubert Dreyfus before. He is a Philosophy professor from UC-Berkeley. He was persona non grata at MIT because he told them back in the sixties that a self driving car was not possible using computers as they were designed back then.

He has since been proven correct and his theories have been implemented in AI research and are just beginning to be applied to autonomous vehicle development.

The bad news for AI and AV is that there is no amount of sensors that can duplicate our 5th sense. The seat of the pants feel we have for our environment and how we interact with it. Uber just found that out when their vehicle ran over that lady in Tempe. They had cut back on the sensor suite because they thought the black box had learned enough about certain environmental cues and Tesla is finding out about a lot of flaws in their designs (logic).

A good primer on this discussion is a film called 'Being in the World'...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1-rmGy9gWvE
1951 Series 62 Sedan
1969 Eldorado
1970 Eldorado (Triple Black w/power roof)
1958 Apache 3/4 ton 4x4
2005 F250
2014 FLHP
2014 SRX

D.Smith

The new technology that will make it happen today is called V2V.   Vehicle to vehicle communication.   The same technology that commercial aircraft have been using for some time now to avoid mid air collisions.   Apparently we are so very close to new cars being able to "see each other" and this would be one more step to insure against car to car collisions.   The biggest problem right now is the liability factor due to the unpredictable pedestrians that will jay walk in front of the vehicles.  Yes there are proximity sensors and auto braking, but the Google incident has proven it isn't perfected yet.

Cadillac Nut

I agree with Mike.  They preached a similar thing decades ago.   Still hasn't happened.  It might happen, it might not, if it does, it's far in the future.  5 years people will be selling their cars for scrap to buy something that doesn't even exist now?  That is a laughable prediction.  I personally do not think that future roads will be populated only by self driving cars.  .    Plenty of people will never accept the technology and driving will certainly not become illegal any time soon.  The Amish are still using buggies 100 years after they became obsolete and no one ever made a law making it illegal, or will.  There will always be cars like we have now.  Remember that those commercial airliners still have pilots.   

Lexi

Electric pods and control of cars? Sounds a bit like that old GM Motorama movie with the family in the 1956 Firebird concept car being piloted by the traffic controller in that Jetsons like space-age pod. Clay/Lexi

cadillacmike68

Regards,
"Cadillac" Mike