How many left?

[SteveB3155]

I know that my 1961 Convertible is one of 15,500 built, but I'm wondering if there is a database available that indicates how many remain today?  Is there a way to extract data from the 50 DMV's around the country as to how many are still registered to be on the road? This would not account for unregistered cars, but would provide a minimum number saved from the crusher.

[James Landi]

Steve,

Here's a data point--- I was very fortunate to have been given one by my very generous parents in 1965; it was a white with a red interior, and I absolutely LOVED it -- while in college (you can only imagine the joy it delivered), and it was my daily driver up until 1972, when it refused to go into reverse, and I gave it to my mechanic, who parted it out and junked the rest... so that's one unfortunate one down and 14,499  to go?   James

[SteveB3155]

I'm a bit sad by that story, James.  I got mine in 1975 for my 14th birthday (I'm 1961 vintage as well)  My father was the GM of a Cadillac dealership at the time, and recognized that the car was in good shape and was a potential classic, so when I was old enough to get my driver's license in 1978, he picked up a '71 Skylark to be my daily driver, leaving the Cadillac only for special occasions.  I've put on roughly 4000 miles since 1975.

[Clewisiii]

The old 61 62 forum had a registry.  There were several hundred listed there. But it has folded. 

And no you cannot check all states DMV.  Michigan does not even have a "DMV".  They are all covered in the Secretary of State office. 

Sometimes you can search for records on a specific Vin Number.  But the classic cars short Vin numbers are not supported in that system.

[fishnjim]

Not a first time issue nor particular to Cads.  Something one just can't google to get the answer.   Other brand "car" clubs are known to keep an owners registry.   I don't think CLC does this, per se, but if no one does, it goes unknown.   CLC takes the info(optional) when you pay your dues.   I haven't seen a link or any access?   Gets published in the annual directory, but then you're on your own to manually dig out the data.   Since only collectors want this info, the general public isn't going to pay for it.   The bicentenials had a lady that tracked them all, but that was only 200 cars, and that effort is now defunct.
Some states won't release DMV info except to current title owners of that particular car.   So that's not a comprehensive or end all method.
During the '70-80s, in the era of Japanese electric arc steel, they were sucking a lot of scrap out of the US and a good many old Cads/cars bit the crusher, because scrap prices were low, and Cads were big weight.   But they don't keep public records either.   Some states they turn scrapped titles into the DMV, others not.   BO's clunker rules, ate some.
There seems to be a larger percentage surviving of some years/models, than others, probably economic and popularity driven and you see that in "for sale"s.   That changes too with the market.   Some don't show up at all, because the owners are holding.   It's obviously an age related curve, but a wild guess after this many years would be <1/3 survive.

[Lexi]

Excellent topic and discussion. Just a comment on the CLC Directory. I am aware that members list cars but without a notation of condition. In some cases that I am personally aware of, some vehicles noted are parts cars. I would imagine that such a vehicle's life expectancy may be short when compared to a #1 concourse car owned by another collector. Indeed, I can think of a couple of cases where those listed "parts" cars are now gone, perhaps waiting to be reborn as a toaster or a washing machine-as they have been scrapped. I also knew of one CLC member who had listed cars which were NOT owned by them, rather they were owned by someone else! If that someone else was also a CLC member one car could be counted as existing twice in the Directory. The individual in question is no longer a member. That said, I also know of cases where cars in the Directory are misidentified, thus complicating matters further. Then there are the so-called "Tribute" cars as well as those that have been heavily modified. So the job of determining exactly what survives is a daunting challenge. Fishnjim's comment that one cannot just "google" this to get an answer, is dead on, and remains one of the few tasks that the internet cannot accomplish. Clay/Lexi

[Jamurray]

It's a daunting task to determine how many are left. Bill Bickle in Ontario did an inventory of 1940 52 series convertible coupes and documented just over forty. There were 435 built I think. I was curious about how many '40 50 series convertible coupes are left out of 599 produced. The results have been disappointing. Every time I see one for sale I try to get the VIN, paint code, trim code, and body number. My requests are often ignored.

For what it's worth, my 1969 Camaro convertible coupe was one of about 15,000 produced - and it took Chevrolet almost two years to make that number! Cadillac produced that many in only one year, 1970. There's just something about a Cadillac convertible, I guess.

Out of 15,000 produced, there's got to be a ton of 1961 6267s still on the road.

[rsms]

It will probably never be able to be answered accurately.  My addiction to cars usually draws me to certain cars that are re-created or faked such as I have a 1968 Camaro Z28 that 7199 were produced and it seems there are probably more than that in existence currently.  While that might not be totally a correct statement it seems that the majority I see at shows or listed for sale are fakes.  My limited experience with Cadillacs shows me at least when we do find one it's pretty easily identified to be what it is via the trim tag.  It is too bad that in this time of lightning fast internet connections and all of this data being so easily available that there isn't a way to access an accurate count of each car by model via a vehicle registration data base.  Someone could make a pretty penny if they figured that out, I know I would pay for that information on several cars I own

[Jason Edge]

hmmm. Might try to reply with a broad brush stroke.  I had access to the NC DMV files for 24 years before I retired in 2015. While I couldn't give out or share that information I could surely look at it.  It was easy to access the 63's and 64's I have been interested in just search on 64? or 63? where ? was a wild card and filter out the non Cadillacs. Both years had around 200 cars "registered" with about 20 to 40 more for 64 as I recall. Registered meant several things. It might have meant it was registered 10 years prior and plate registration had lapsed and never renewed, or it could have a current registration with current plates. I would also sort further - 64J? for CDV's, 64E for Eldorads, 64F for deVille Convertibles, etc, etc.
A few things came to light:
- The rarest cars (at least registered) were easily the Series 62's. Even accounting for the lower % produced the Series 62 were maybe 1/4 to 1/2 of what you expected. For every one Series 62 6 Window Sedan registered you might have 10 Eldorado's. 
So. of those registered there was also this: There were also many more Coupes, then convertibiles then Eldorado Convertibles with current license plates.. increasing in that order. Back to those Series 62 sedans, even the Series 62 coupes, you might see 1 in 4 with current plates vs the 3 in 4 you might see for a deVille convertible.

I have also been closely involved with the 63/64's in NC for 24 years and have come in contact with many of the owners. Not surprising, there is a % that never registered their car in NC. They either left registration in another state under another residence, or just didn't put the car on the road. If you don't plan to put license plates on a car there is nothing that can force you walk up to a DMV office and register the car. On the flip side, there are many of those "lapsed plate cars" where I contacted and talked to the owner only to tell me that that Series 62 went to the junk yard 10 years prior, or sold to out of state, etc. etc.

So, I looked at the 200+ cars registered in NC. I looked at the % breakdowns by body styles registered and again with current license plates or at least lapsed within 1 to 2 years, and I factored in that there was a % that while they were registered at some point where probably long gone (I think my guestimate was about 35%) then I considered the cars in the state that were simply not registered (I think my guestimate was about 10%). I then looked at NC's population vs the United States ( little over 3%). I then considered if NC would have an avereage # of 63/64 Cadillacs by population % compared to other states. I know from my parts business that there are a lot of customers form CA, NY, TX and FL and heavy in the north east. I have also kept a sale ledger and looked back at it and yep... I ship a lot of parts to CA! I also know there are states I hardly ever ship parts to. SD, ND,HI, etc.  So I thought NC was probaby about in the middle average wise.

So redoing the numbers now for the 1st time in a decade, I get ((200 x 0.65) x 1.1) / .03) and come up with something llike 4,766 per year. That would be out of a 1963 production total of 163,174 and 1964 production total of 165,956.  Of course I did the math with the exact # of 63's and 64's registered at the time so that would be a bit different but in the ball park of what I just came up with doing the math again in the fly. I could also use the same method to come up with a % of those with current plates and push the math further to guestimate the # of say 1964 Coupe de Villes. Above and beyond that, there are the 63's and 64's outside the USA. I really don't have any clue how may are out there outside the USA.

So that was my method of trying to estimate by extrapolation the #'s of 1963's and 1964's in the USA. Probably doesn't help most people but I felt my #'s, with access to the NC DMV data at the time, was probably in the ballpark. or at least within view of the stadium! LOL

[cadillacmike68]

Just Double the number of cars in the Annual directory. - As a start. I have no idea. 

[Jason Edge]

Just Double the number of cars in the Annual directory.

It would be nice to think that the CLC had signed up 50% of the old Cadillac owners, but that is very unrealistic. As director of the 1963/64 Cadillac Chapter I can ask for listings of the CLC members with 1963/64 Cadillacs. I last did this in 2017 and at which time there were 204 1963's and 315 1964's. As I recall there were still about 180 1964's and 160 1963's registered in NC just 2 years prior in 2015. Again our state is about 3% of the population. Another stat I didn't mention was the fact if you looked at every 1963/64 registered in our state about 40 to 50% had current plates. So that pretty much guarntees  youof about 80 to 100 1963's and 1964 still in our state.  Divide my 0.03 and from that minimum y ou are still getting over 2500 cars.

But a more telling look at the CLC membership vs cars out there would be 1964 Eldorados and Jerry Puma's 1964 Eldordo's Survior registry at which point he had documented about 286 surving 1964 Eldorado's about the same time.  So the CLC database had 59 1964 Eldorado's listed, and Jerry's list had 286 documented current 1964 Eldorados. That was just what Jerry Puma has found on his own. I know of several 64 Eldo owners that have refused to give Jerry any info.. so there are more out there.  But looking at the data we have, the CLC has about 20% of the currently documented Eldos in Jerry's list as of 2017.

My guess is that as you go back to the earlier model Cadillacs and LaSalles, the % of those registered with the CLC go up. Move out to the 1960's and later I would probably take the CLC Database vs Jerry's documented 1964 Eldos and drop the % maybe down from 20 to 15% or so and then to do the multiplication to extrapolate. I would not do that for the earlier cars... again I would think those very early Cadillac owners would be more likely to be in the CLC  and could approach a considerably higher mark.. but even for those 50% would seem high.

Ok, one more metric I can offer. The 1963/64 Cadillac Website has 2664 members as of right now. Most have 1 or more 1963 or 1964 Cadillacs. Of these, I am only showing 280 in the CLC. Sort of like the CLC Forums here. Most of you own an Cadillac, but are 50% of the forum members a CLC  member? I forget the stat, but it is way less than 50%.

[Lexi]

This very interesting discussion continues, so here is some more food for thought.

Vintage cars, as in other collectibles have many variables that impact their ability to survive. Take books for example, some volumes are just known to survive better than others; acidified paper vs those printed on better stock, as just one example. I can think of many factors including "wild cards" that would impact whether old cars are kept or lost. Just way too many to list. Lou Commisso who was the Administrator for the now defunct Mid Century Cadillac Forum of the CLC, had a 1956 Cadillac Eldorado Survivor Registry list, which was active until that chapter folded last year. In March of 2020 I asked Lou what his final count was on survivor cars to which he replied, (quote):

"191 on the roster. I know of 4 or 5 more that haven't made it to the list. My guess is there is another 100 hiding out there in the world somewhere. Figure 300 overall. Terrible survival rate. Much lower than the 53 and 59 Eldorados and lower than the broughams too". (Don't recall Lou stating condition of all found but I believe it included all conditions).

Further, that 69 of these were found outside of the US, (18 of those located in Sweden). That is a poor survival rate, considering that 2,150 were made and that convertibles tend to be a car that is cherished usually on a broader scale. So between 191 - 300 have survived, but only 33 are listed in the CLC Directory, & presumably listed correctly (Note-see my earlier post on Directory listings in this thread). So survival rates are all over the map. So if I did the math correctly, using the 191 figure, the one that we can presently take to the bank, we got 8.8 % survival rate, for that year and model of Cadillac. Clay/Lexi

[Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621]

I think volume production convertibles had the worst survival rate; best for sedans and coupes somewhere between as a general rule.

However the picture gets a bit hazy when the market for convertibles began to change in the mid/late 70s, resulting in more convertibles being rescued/restored than closed body styles. Eldorado convertibles (RWD) complicates this even further.

Bill Refakis' research estimates the number of known 59 EBZ at around 400 +/- which puts survivorship of that model at around 30% but being it's a model of high demand and collector interest means that these are far more likely to surface (and become restored) than any '61 convertible could ever hope to be.

I would therefore estimate survivorship of '61 Series 62 convertible significantly lower - perhaps at half that for a low estimate of 15% up to 20% or 2,250 to 3,100 cars (of 15,500 produced). It's likely to be higher for the '61 Eldorado- so probably closer to 25% or ~ 350 cars (of 1,450 produced).

And for some reason there are very few '63 Eldorados compared to '64s so the picture gets even more complicated.

[Lexi]

Way too many variables in the mix to predict what should have survived. WWII scrap drives would be another factor for earlier Cadillacs. For other makes and models Hot Rodders have decimated certain body styles, while ignoring others. I think a lot has to do also with what the public see as desirable at any given point in history. Eric's comment about convertibles and the market change making things "hazy" as he put it, & supply and demand driving salvage ('59 Eldo), is well said.

As for my 1956 Limo, I have never seen one on the road or at a show up here, even though I searched on and off for some 50 years, but it is a professional car and the market for them is definitely niche, which is a "wild card". With 955 having been produced, finding certain trim parts and also their size, are factors that cannot be ignored. If a car is too long to fit in a regular garage it is often parked out in the elements. This would speed up its deterioration. Come time to decide whether to restore or unload, the cost of doing one is brutal with less of a return on your investment come selling time as they are under valued (but with equal or even greater restoration costs). So by default many return to the earth. There is also a "stigma" attached to many of these cars as there are those who wish to have nothing to do with a vehicle that looks as if it may have been associated with the death industry, (funeral homes), even though that may not be the case.

Lots of tribute cars out there that masquerade as the real deal. There was a company up here called Classic Caddies whose primary business was to turn 1959 Cadillac 2 door cars into convertibles. Their slogan was, "We Make the Best '59 Convertibles Anywhere". If memory serves correctly, they even did Eldos and their customer base was largely world wide. I have seen at least one of these in the Directory listed as a convertible when in reality, it started life as a Coupe de Ville. I suspect that we in the vintage Cadillac world don't see as much of this as do those in the muscle car world where tribute cars abound.

It would be fantastic for the CLC to have a survivor registry of some sort, but I realize that would be an enormous project, inherent with many limitations, of which some have been discussed in this thread. Clay/Lexi

[James Landi]

We can hope that the present collection of cars will be passed on to the next generation who will care and venerate them.  I own two vintage wood boats, and the large twin engine one that we had extensively rebuilt years ago has virtually zero market value-- in large part because of the size and cost for indoor storage the "size" of the yard bills to keep large wood boat alive.  Our small single engine wood ski boat has great value and lives on a trailer and stored in a large garage, and so my point here, as Lexi mentions, if it can't fit in the garage, that's a limitation on ownership... additionally, some of our well maintained drivers will, alas, wind up in the hands of folks who buy them and "use them up."  We note some evidence of that category in the "for sale" section, where an apparently well maintained example has survived for decades in someone's loving care, and then gets "used and abused," and will inevitably  become a basket case or a surviving parts car.   James