How many left? 38 lasalle sedan

[Ronald Wolf]

I am young guy who recently came across the 38 lasalle sedan.  Bought it from a elderly friend of the family.  How many are known to exist?  How hard are parts to find?  Trying to learn as much as possible about this car.  It has truly captured me from first sight.  Thanks, Ron

[John Washburn]

Ron,

Good questions but as to the number of 38 LaSalles still around it is anyones guess. If you join the Cadillac LaSalle Club you can look up club members who have the same car. But as to others that are out there it is hard to guess.

Parts, for your particular car are not to hard to find, not easy, but not to hard to find. A great car.

If you plan to do the work on this car yourself, make sure you get a 37 Cad Shop manual and a 38 supplement. This would give you a lot of info on the car.

Once you join the CLC you will get a roster of the members in the club. You can then chat, call, or write those with similar makes.

Good Luck
John Washburn
CLC #1067

[Rhino 21150]

I have one and love this thing! In addition to the club, many members of which have parts floating around, there are many suppliers. Also, many parts interchange with other GM cars. I have a catalog from http://www.chevsofthe40s.com. TARGET=_blank>www.chevsofthe40s.com. They have parts going back to 37, some of which work fine in a La Salle, mostly electrical stuff. I got halogen headlamps (conversions) from them. Woohoo! I can drive at night! Even plastic parts that have rotted away can be replaced. In addition to this fine club there is a chat group on Yahoogroups that is full of knowledeable people.

[DJW #13918]

Ron, Welcome to the Cadillac LaSalle world! Congradulations on taking the proper first step in LaSalle ownership. #1 Ask a lot of questions. #2 Take your time. #3 Join the Cadillac LaSalle Club (national and region). #4 Join the LaSalle Appreciation Society Chapter of the CLC. #5 Purchase a copy of Ron Van Gelderen & Matt Larsons great book LASALLE, CADILLACS COMPAMION CAR. This fine book has 25 pages dedicated to the 38 LaSalle with many black and white as well as color photos. #6 Get familiar with this fine car by networking and attending events to see other examples of originals, drivers, restorations and show queens. This will help you decide what you want your car to be. #7 Dont touch one nut or bolt until you have done all of the above. Many, knowing little about their individual car, have a tendency to start changing parts, only to find out that a very difficult to replace original part has been discarded. First timers (maybe you are an old hand at this) should always take the time to do the research a put together a plan which will take that pride and joy in the right direction. I happen to be one that has driver or touring quality vehicles. Driving and being on the road in a sixty year old vehicle and the chalanges it brings is a kick that cannot be described. With that said, I am always looking for items that will keep my cars as close to original condition as possible. I made some mistakes with the first old cars I had years ago and wish a network like this would have been available back then.
That was along way to get to your question but here goes! Total production of 38s is about 15,500. Of this number 1246 were for export and commercial use. That would leave 14254. Of these, 9768 5 passenger sedans were produced (assuming yours is a 5 passenger sedan). Conventional wisdom assumes about a 10percent atrition rate each year. I have always questioned this assumption, but it is something on which to base base survival rates. There are about 75 member in the CLC listed as owning 38 LaSalles so you are in good company. Needless to say it is not a car you see at the drive-in next to the rows of 57 chevs on Saturday night. Again, congratulations on your aquisition and get on board with the CLC. It will not be long before we see you at one of our events.

[Bill Gauch]

Just for fun, I did the calculation of 10percent a year. Im thinking that 10percent is a little high. Ok, actually, Im thinking its a lot high. At 10percent per year, I should have the only complete 1938 Series 6519 left. Im pretty sure that isnt true, though. I wonder, does anyone know of any studies on this? Im thinking that 10percent is probably a good number when the car is being actively used. As soon as the car gets old I have to imagine that the rate would drop drastically. I would be really interested to know what the true formula is. Im thinking that a formula would be easy to calculate using an extensive registry over a decade or so. Of course, the numbers would have to be adjusted for a potentially large error margin. Anyway, if anyone knows a formula, plese let me know.

[DJW#13918]

You are right, there isnt a GOOD formula for figuring survival rates. The 10percent rule is the only one I have seen used with any regularity and as I said, I also question it. I ran with this number out to 60 years and came up with 15. In checking the CLC membership, I see 22. Your assumption that the survival rate decreases as these cars become collectors is also valid. However, prewar cars were also run into the ground between 1938 and 1946 when new car production resumed. Many of the cars that failed during the war years were recycled into tanks, cannons or armor. Another point that we need to consider is that many of the restored cars today were constructed from non operating vehicles out of junk yards. Another interesting angle is that not so many years ago (and still today) these four door sedans were used as parts cars for convertables and other seemingly more desirable collector cars. The very car in question was among the unaccounted for until recently purchased. The point being this car has come a long way baby! I would be willing to bet that we are talking closer to 100 survivors than we are 1000. Its worth the effort!

[Yann Saunders, 12588]

This attrition rate thing has the same effect on me as do statistics.  First there are lies, then there are damned lies and finally there are statistics.

Believe me, there is no magical formula. There is only research and the concrete facts that might emerge from it.  Magical formulae may apply to cars built in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands.  They cant (and dont) mean a thing in the case of low-volume production models, especially those with collector appeal, like older Cadillac and LaSalles.

There comes a time in the life-span of those cars when the attrition rate drops to 0 or goes into reverse as good survivors are found and restored.  These will live on, basically, for ever, going from one enthusiast to another and, usually, getting a new lease of life from each new owner. Some of them may even end up looking (and operating) better than when factory new.

Its probably a bad example but of the 400 Eldorado Broughams built in 1957, almost 63percent of them are known to have survived, many in good to very good working condition; others are on the way there. So thats an attrition rate of 37percent over almost a half century or circa 0.5percent p.a.  Similarly, I had a 42 Fleetwood 7519-F formal 5-pass. sedan; sixty-five were built and four are known to have survived (there may be more).  Thats an attrition rate of 93.8percent over 64 years, or 1.5percent p.a.

IMHO a popular and reliable car like the 38 LaSalle sedan would have begun to enjoy collector appeal in the early sixties.  I would guestimate that there were circa 500 survivors in the world at that time (out of 10,000 or so built). Of these, today, 100 are probably in the hands of dyed-in-the-wool enthusiasts, i.e. about 1percent of total production; they may have reached that point where the attrition rate may become reversed.

Thats how I see it ...but dont quote me on this.

[Chris Arneson #22170]

Interesting question.  There is a magic formula, but Yann brings up some good points about statistics, which I agree with and can support with examples.  I work as a reliability engineer and basically deal with questions like this every day.  Here are my thoughts on this question.

First we have to define what we mean by survivor.  Do we mean running/driving or simply not crushed and melted.  I personally prefer the later because it avoids the situation like Yann describes with a negative attrition rate.  I would consider any car not crushed or damaged beyond recognition as surviving.  Admittedly this is a grey area.

Magic Formula:

If you will recall from Jr. High Biology class that bacteria multiply rapidly and can be modeled by the exponential distribution.  This distribution is also used regularly in reliability to model situations like we have here.  Assuming that exponential is a good model we have an equation looks like this.

R(t)=e^(-t*lamda)

Here R(t) gives us the probability of survival at time t, which when multiplied by the total number of items in the population at t=0 gives the estimated number of survivors.

The parameter [lamda] is the tricky one.  As Yann pointed out some cars have particular interest around them.  Situations like this will lead to different values of [lamda] for different models.

To solve for [lamda] in this case I used an example that I am personally more familiar with, 55 Eldorados.  Ive been watching the sales of 55 Eldos for a couple of years and feel there are about 200 survivors out of 3950.  This gives 5percent at 50 years.  Next I found a value of [lamda] that would give this result and found about 0.06.  

So, if you accept my model you get the following:

R(t)=14254*e^(-68*.6), which gives and estimate of 241 cars left.

Right?  Wrong?  How knows?  Long winded?  Yes.  But, hey, you asked for it.

BTW, there is a more complicated model that could take into account a time dependant failure rate (i.e. less cars by percentage are failing today than years ago), maybe good for the second lesson.

Best Regards

Chris.

[Fred Garfield 22310]

Get ahold of the DMV records in all states for the years 1938 and 2005, enter the old ones into the current database and do a search for that model/year. Youll then know how many were registered in this country in 38 and how many are registered or have non-operator status today. Extrapolate for those that were originally sent abroad. Correct for barn sitters.

Theres always some fanatic whos willing to devote decades to such a task. The trouble is finding him. I dont think hes in this forum.

[Matt V16]

  Im sure that we all think about how many of our cars are left....  10 years ago, I found a super rare 1937 LaSalle convertible sedan that was just sitting out in the woods for more than 40 years..  It was on stone, not dirt and was wrapped up very well along with several other old Cadillacs..  After taking down the trees that were around the car, we pulled it out of the woods and cleaned it up..  The car held up very well after all that time..  It still sits in my garage today.. I have been looking for any other 1937 LaSalle convertible sedans for at least 10 years and have found nothing..  Several people have told me that a few are around..  However, until I see one in person....  1937 was the first year of the LaSalle convertible sedan and very few were built..  I would guess that the rare models had a much better chance of sticking around over time..  After years of visiting with the owner and telling him that I just wanted to save the cars, I was lucky enough to pull most of the other Cadillacs out of this place that could be saved including a 1938 60 Special that was sitting next to the LaSalle.. The point is this.... Keep looking down driveways, in garages, barns and yes, even the woods.. Rare old cars are still waiting to be found and saved..  We should start a new topic.. What is the rarest automobile you have found?

[DJW #13918]

How do you like that Ron!
You have a 38 LaSalle and now you also have opinions from THE Cadillac historian, a math/statistics expert and more than a few CERTIFIED Cadillac nuts. The general concensus always seems to point to the simple fact that no one really knows for sure how many survivers there are, only educated guesses. This gets us back to the the real point. There are not a whole bunch of these babies still on the road. With the number of opinions your question started, can you imagine how much help you are going to get when you try to decide what color to paint your 38. Keep us posted on what you are doing and dont be afraid to ask a lot of questions. The help is availabe if you ask.
Good Luck!

[John Binder]

1938 LASALLE CONVERTIBLE,  4 door sedan, call for more details, $25,000 firm. (203) 729-0068. Naugatuck Conn.


Matt,
This is one year off from yours...
this car has been advertised for at least 3 years continuously in a area trader paper
 and all at the same price with no more detail given. Call him up and at least tell him to put it on the CLC Board Eh ?

A few years back I talked to a guy at Hershey who described a mostly restored needs
completion assembly Estate type car that sounded similar but NOT sure it was this one.

[Rod Olson #15736]

Ron, factor in that people may have taken care of them  during the
war years and for a few years afterward when cars were scarce but when the new postwar models began to appear,
they were just old cars.
Plus many of them were wearing out and Cadillac discontinued them in 1940, so they may have
also been considered orphan cars too.
The 5019 sedan may have been the most popular style but was usually used as family cars and werent given the best of care.
Just my opinions.
I love my LaSalle.
Feel free to e-mail with pics of yours, my brother.
I will do same.
Warm Regards,
Rod O